Real Estate is Local!

Real Estate is Local!

You hear this term a lot but what exactly does it mean? To demonstrate how true this statement is, look at the graphics below. They point out the difference in home values from 2007 to 2008 in Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William Counties by zip code. Prices do not only vary from state to state in the US but they vary within our local area of Northern Virginia from zip code to zip code. This is why you can't read the paper or watch the news in order to determine how the real estate market is doing in your neighborhood. You need to call an expert to run your local numbers to determine your home's value.

As you can see below, some areas saw huge price reductions like in Manassas which was down 51% while other areas like McLean were only down between 3%-8%.

Looking at Fairfax County as a whole on average prices were down 25% for single family detached homes from Dec. 2007 to Dec. 2008. However, if you look more closely at the County in Herndon prices were down by more than 25% while in the Tyson's Corner area prices were down as little as 3%. The same differences can be found in Loudoun and in Prince William. It is safe to say that all of our home prices are down, but you have to be careful in generalizing by how much.

I'm happy to run the numbers for your specific neighborhood for anyone who is interested. Just contact me via email or phone and I'll give you specific information about your home.

Fairfax County Price Changes Dec. 2007 to Dec. 2008

Prince William County Price Changes Dec. 2007 to Dec. 2008

Loudoun County Price Changes Dec. 2007 to Dec. 2008

Early March Numbers Look Good!

The real estate sale numbers for March continue to look strong. In Northern Virginia, for every 10 homes on the market, 3.9 were under contract which is an increase of 15% over February contracts. It's important to look at homes under contract because they are an early indicator of market activity and 39% is very strong. In February, Northern Virginia posted a 33% increase in homes under contract, over January, so any increase in March is impressive. The trend is looking very promising....

One question that I get a lot is: How do I determine the direction of prices in my market?

Although there are no steadfast rules to determine future pricing, months' supply of inventory (total number of homes on the market divided by the number of houses sold per month) is a great guideline. A normalized or balanced market has 5-6 months inventory. If 100 homes sell a month, there should be 500 to 600 houses in active inventory. Based on this principle, if you have less than 5-6 months of inventory, prices should rise. This is simple supply and demand economics (low supply and high demand = price increase). Lack of supply causes potential buyers to clamor over the few homes that are for sale, which in turn drives prices higher.

In Northern Virginia we currently have a 6.1 months' supply of homes so we are right in the "balanced" range. We are seeing multiple contracts in the $350K and lower price range though. That market is very hot with foreclosures dominating. With low prices and low interest rates, first time home buyers and investors are flooding that market. If you need any further information, please feel free to text me your contact information using the following link:

Just the Facts!

The facts are hard to find these days. With the media publishing any news that is negative and all the different views and opinions that are out there, this blog is intended to give you an accurate picture of what's is truly going on in the Northern Virginia Real Estate market......just the facts.

The news is usually behind what's actually going on by about 2 months....so if you want to stay abreast to current news, stay tuned to this blog. I will report on the news from a front-line perspective.

Currently, the market is hot! Despite what you read, the local market is cooking. Inventory of homes on the market is low and sales are rising. Foreclosures are still making up about 45% of the sales, but they are decreasing. The number of foreclosures coming on the market has been slowing down.....it's down to a trickle compared to what we were seeing last year. Prices are still low and now that interest rates are hovering at historic lows, buyers are snatching up the available homes. Multiple contracts are common practice especially on the foreclosures because of their lower prices.

Here are the actual numbers for Northern Virginia for February:

Pending Home Sales are up +19.07% from February 08.

Number of Homes on the Market is down -17.75% from February 08.

Average Sale Prices are down -20.07% from February 08.

Prices do remain down; however, that can't hold true if inventory remains low and sales continue to rise. March's numbers look to be holding true to these trends.

We are lucky to live in Northern Virginia. Our unemployment is half of what the national average is and our job growth outlook is strong. Real estate here has taken a hit but it appears it needed it and now seems to be showing signs of life again. I'm happy to any of your specific questions....just give me a call!

(Figures include data collected from the counties of Fairfax and Arlington, and the cities of

Alexandria, Falls Church, Fairfax, and the towns of Vienna, Herndon and Clifton.)